The following are my final predictions for Oscar nominees this Thursday. Films and people are listed in order of likelihood of getting a nomination, with three additional possibilities listed afterward. [Updated to reflect the actual nominees — denoted in red.]
Picture
(assuming 10 nominees)
Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
Spotlight
The Martian
Room
Carol
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
The Revenant
Spotlight
The Martian
Room
Carol
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
On the Bubble:
Creed
Straight Outta Compton
Steve Jobs
Creed
Straight Outta Compton
Steve Jobs
Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies)
On the Bubble:
Todd Haynes (Carol)
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Todd Haynes (Carol)
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Actor
Leonard DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
On the Bubble:
Steve Carell (The Big Short)
Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
Steve Carell (The Big Short)
Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
Actress
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Brie Larson (Room)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
On the Bubble:
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Emily Blunt (Sicario)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Emily Blunt (Sicario)
Supporting Actor
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Jacob Tremblay (Room)
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Jacob Tremblay (Room)
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
On the Bubble:
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Missed:
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Joan Allen (Room)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Joan Allen (Room)
On the Bubble:
Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Original Screenplay
Spotlight
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out
Sicario
The Hateful Eight
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out
Sicario
The Hateful Eight
On the Bubble:
Straight Outta Compton
Ex Machina
Joy
Straight Outta Compton
Ex Machina
Joy
Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Room
Brooklyn
The Martian
Steve Jobs
Room
Brooklyn
The Martian
Steve Jobs
On the Bubble:
Carol
The Revenant
Trumbo
Carol
The Revenant
Trumbo
Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul
A War
Mustang
Theeb
Viva
A War
Mustang
Theeb
Viva
On the Bubble:
Labyrinth of Lies
The Fencer
Embrace of the Serpent
Labyrinth of Lies
The Fencer
Embrace of the Serpent
Documentary Feature
Amy
The Look of Silence
Best of Enemies
3 1/2 Minutes, 10 Bullets
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
Best of Enemies
3 1/2 Minutes, 10 Bullets
Cartel Land
On the Bubble:
Going Clear
The Hunting Ground
He Named Me Malala
Going Clear
The Hunting Ground
He Named Me Malala
Missed:
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Animated Feature
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
On the Bubble:
When Marnie Was There
Minions
The Peanuts Movie
When Marnie Was There
Minions
The Peanuts Movie
Missed:
Boy and the World
Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant)
Edward Lachman (Carol)
Janusz Kaminski (Bridge of Spies)
Robert Richardson (The Hateful Eight)
John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Edward Lachman (Carol)
Janusz Kaminski (Bridge of Spies)
Robert Richardson (The Hateful Eight)
John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)
On the Bubble:
Roger Deakins (Sicario)
Dariusz Wolski (The Martian)
Yves Bélanger (Brooklyn)
Roger Deakins (Sicario)
Dariusz Wolski (The Martian)
Yves Bélanger (Brooklyn)
Editing
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
On the Bubble:
Sicario
Creed
Spotlight
Sicario
Creed
Spotlight
Missed:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Score
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Carol
Bridge of Spies
Spotlight
Inside Out
Carol
Bridge of Spies
Spotlight
On the Bubble:
Steve Jobs
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Missed:
Sicario
Song
“Writings on the Wall” (Spectre)
“See You Again” (Furious 7)
“Love Me Like You Do” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)
“Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
“See You Again” (Furious 7)
“Love Me Like You Do” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)
“Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
On the Bubble:
“Waiting for My Moment” (Creed)
“Who Can You Trust” (Spy)
“Hands of Love” (Freeheld)
“Waiting for My Moment” (Creed)
“Who Can You Trust” (Spy)
“Hands of Love” (Freeheld)
Missed:
“Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction)
“Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
Production Design
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
On the Bubble:
Cinderella
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
Cinderella
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
Missed:
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
Cinderella
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
On the Bubble:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Kingsman: The Secret Service
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Kingsman: The Secret Service
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
Black Mass
On the Bubble:
Mr. Holmes
Concussion
Legend
Mr. Holmes
Concussion
Legend
Missed:
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Inside Out
On the Bubble:
Straight Outta Compton
Sicario
Jurassic World
Straight Outta Compton
Sicario
Jurassic World
Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Jurassic World
Spectre
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Jurassic World
Spectre
On the Bubble:
Avengers: Age of Ultron
The Revenant
Inside Out
Avengers: Age of Ultron
The Revenant
Inside Out
Missed:
Bridge of Spies
Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Walk
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Walk
On the Bubble:
The Revenant
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Ant-Man
The Revenant
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Ant-Man
Missed:
Ex Machina
Animated Short
World of Tomorrow
Bear Story
If I Was God
Sanjay’s Super Team
An Object at Rest
Bear Story
If I Was God
Sanjay’s Super Team
An Object at Rest
On the Bubble:
Prologue
Carface (Autos Portraits)
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
Prologue
Carface (Autos Portraits)
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
Live Action Short
Ave Maria
Everything Will Be Okay
Contrapelo
Bis Gleich (Till Then)
Shok
Everything Will Be Okay
Contrapelo
Bis Gleich (Till Then)
Shok
On the Bubble:
Day One
Winter Light
Stutterer
Day One
Winter Light
Stutterer
Documentary Short Subject
Body Team 12
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
My Enemy, My Brother
The Testimony
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
My Enemy, My Brother
The Testimony
On the Bubble:
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Minerita
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Minerita
Missed:
A Girl in the River
