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Oscar Prediction History
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| Feature Score | 12/20 (60%) | 10/21 (47.6%) | 15/21 (71.4%) | 15/21 (71.4%) | 12/21 (71.4%) |
| Big Eight Score | 4/8 (50%) | 5/8 (62.5%) | 5/8 (62.5%) | 7/8 (87.5%) | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Picture | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | A Beautiful Mind | Chicago | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Aviator |
| Director | Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Martin Scorsese, The Aviator |
| Actor | Ed Harris, Pollock | Denzel Washington, Training Day | Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York | Sean Penn, Mystic River | Jamie Foxx, Ray |
| Actress | Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich | Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom | Nicole Kidman, The Hours | Charlize Theron, Monster | Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby |
| Supporting Actor | Benicio Del Toro, Traffic | Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | Chris Cooper, Adaptation. | Tim Robbins, Mystic River | Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby |
| Supporting Actress | Kate Hudson, Almost Famous | Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind | Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago | Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain | Cate Blanchett, The Aviator |
| Adapted Screenplay | Traffic | A Beautiful Mind | The Hours | Mystic River | Million Dollar Baby |
| Original Screenplay | Almost Famous | Memento | Talk to Her | Lost in Translation | Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
| Cinematography | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | The Man Who Wasn't There | Road to Perdition | Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World | The Aviator |
| Film Editing | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | Chicago | City of God | The Aviator |
| Animated Film | Shrek | Spirited Away | Finding Nemo | The Incredibles | |
| Foreign Film | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Amélie | Nowhere in Africa | Evil | The Sea Inside |
| Documentary | Into the Arms of Strangers: Stories of the Kindertransport | Promises | Bowling for Columbine | The Fog of War | Born Into Brothels |
| Art Direction | Gladiator | Moulin Rouge | Gangs of New York | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Phantom of the Opera |
| Costume Design | Gladiator | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | Chicago | Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World | Troy |
| Makeup | Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | Frida | Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl | Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events |
| Original Score | Gladiator | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | The Hours | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Passion of the Christ |
| Original Song | "Things Have Changed" - Wonder Boys | "Until..." - Kate & Leopold | "I Move On" - Chicago | "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind | "Believe" - The Polar Express |
| Sound | The Perfect Storm | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | Chicago | Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World | The Aviator |
| Sound Editing | U-571 | Pearl Harbor | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers | Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World | Spider-Man 2 |
| Visual Effects | Gladiator | A.I.: Artificial Intelligence | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Spider-Man 2 |
| 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | |
| Feature Score | 16/21 (76%) | 16/21 (76%) | 18/21 (86%) | 16/21 (76%) | 16/20 (80%) |
| Big Eight Score | 6/8 (75%) | 7/8 (87.5%) | 7/8 (87.5%) | 4/8 (50%) | 8/8 (100%) |
| Picture | Braveheart | The English Patient | Titanic | Saving Private Ryan | American Beauty |
| Director | Mel Gibson, Braveheart | Anthony Minghella, The English Patient | James Cameron, Titanic | Steven Spileberg, Saving Private Ryan | Sam Mendes, American Beauty |
| Actor | Nicholas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas | Geoffrey Rush, Shine | Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets | Ian McKellen, Gods and Monsters | Kevin Spacey, American Beauty |
| Actress | Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking | Frances McDormand, Fargo | Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets | Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love | Hilary Swank, Boys Don't Cry |
| Supporting Actor | Ed Harris, Apollo 13 | Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire | Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting | Ed Harris, The Truman Show | Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules |
| Supporting Actress | Joan Allen, Nixon | Juliette Binoche, The English Patient | Gloria Stuart, Titanic | Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love | Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted |
| Adapted Screenplay | Sense and Sensability | The English Patient | L.A. Confidential | The Thin Red Line | The Cider House Rules |
| Original Screenplay | The Usual Suspects | Fargo | Good Will Hunting | Shakespeare in Love | American Beauty |
| Cinematography | Braveheart | The English Patient | Titanic | Saving Private Ryan | American Beauty |
| Film Editing | Apollo 13 | The English Patient | Titanic | Saving Private Ryan | The Matrix |
| Foreign Film | Antonia's Line | Kolya | Character | Life is Beautiful | All About My Mother |
| Documentary | Anne Frank Remembered | When We Were Kings | The Long Way Home | The Last Days | Buena Vista Social Club |
| Art Direction | Restoration | Hamlet | Titanic | Shakespeare in Love | Sleepy Hollow |
| Costume Design | Sense and Sensability | The English Patient | Titanic | Shakespeare in Love | Topsy-Turvy |
| Makeup | Braveheart | The Nutty Professor | Titanic | Saving Private Ryan | Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me |
| Dramatic Score | Il Postino | The English Patient | Titanic | Life is Beautiful | American Beauty |
| Comedic Score | Pocahontes | The Hunchback of Notre Dame | As Good As It Gets | Shakespeare in Love | |
| Original Song | "Colors of the Wind" - Pocahontes | "You Must Love Me" - Evita | "My Heart Will Go On" - Titanic | "When You Believe" - The Prince of Egypt | "When She Loved Me" - Toy Story 2 |
| Sound | Braveheart | Twister | Titanic | Saving Private Ryan | The Matrix |
| Sound Effects | Braveheart | Ghost and the Darkness | Titanic | Saving Private Ryan | The Matrix |
| Visual Effects | Apollo 13 | Independence Day | Titanic | What Dreams May Come | The Matrix |
| 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | |
| Feature Score | 17/19 (89%) | 14/20 (70%) | 18/20 (90%) | 17/20 (85%) | 17/20 (85%) |
| Big Eight Score | 8/8 (100%) | 2/8 (25%) | 7/8 (87.5%) | 8/8 (100%) | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| Picture | Dances With Wolves | JFK | Unforgiven | Schindler's List | Forrest Gump |
| Director | Kevin Costner, Dances With Wolves | Oliver Stone, JFK | Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven | Steven Spielberg, Schindler's List | Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump |
| Actor | Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune | Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs | Al Pacino - Scent of a Woman | Tom Hanks, Philadelphia | Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump |
| Actress | Kathy Bates, Misery | Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs | Emma Thompson - Howards End | Holly Hunter, The Piano | Jodie Foster, Nell |
| Supporting Actor | Joe Pesci, GoodFellas | Tommy Lee Jones, JFK | Gene Hackman - Unforgiven | Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive | Martin Landau, Ed Wood |
| Supporting Actress | Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost | Jessica Tandy, Fried Green Tomatoes | Venessa Redgrave, Howard's End | Anna Paquin, The Piano | Dianne Weist, Bullets over Broadway |
| Adapted Screenplay | Dances with Wolves | JFK | Howard's End | Schindler's List | Forrest Gump |
| Original Screenplay | Ghost | Bugsy | The Crying Game | The Piano | Pulp Fiction |
| Cinematography | Dances with Wolves | JFK | A River Runs Through It | Schindler's List | Legends of the Fall |
| Film Editing | Dances with Wolves | JFK | Unforgiven | Schindler's List | Forrest Gump |
| Foreign Film | Cyrano de Bergerac | Mediterraneo | Indochine | Scent of Green Papaya | Burnt by the Sun |
| Documentary | American Dream | In the Shadow of the Stars | The Panama Deception | The War Room | D-Day Remembered |
| Art Direction | Dick Tracy | Bugsy | Howard's End | Schindler's List | Legends of the Fall |
| Costume Design | Dick Tracy | Bugsy | Howard's End | Schindler's List | The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert |
| Makeup | Dick Tracy | Terminator 2 | Bram Stoker's Dracula | Mrs. Doubtfire | Ed Wood |
| Dramatic Score | Dances with Wolves | Beauty and the Beast | Aladdin | Schindler's List | The Lion King |
| Original Song | "Sooner or Later" - Dick Tracy | "Beauty and the Beast" - Beauty and the Beast | "A Whole New World" - Aladdin | "The Streets of Philadelphia" - Philadelphia | "Can You Feel the Love Tonight" - The Lion King |
| Sound | The Hunt for the Red October | Terminator 2 | The Last of the Mohicans | Jurassic Park | Speed |
| Sound Effects | The Hunt for the Red October | Terminator 2 | Bram Stoker's Dracula | Jurassic Park | Speed |
| Visual Effects | Terminator 2 | Death Becomes Her | Jurassic Park | Forrest Gump |
Prediction Reliability by Category
| 1990-1994 | 1995-1999 | 2000-2003 | 1990-2003 | |
| Picture | 4/5 (80%) | 4/5 (80%) | 3/4 (75%) | 11/14 (78.6%) |
| Director | 4/5 (80%) | 5/5 (100%) | 2/4 (50%) | 11/14 (78.6%) |
| Actor | 5/5 (100%) | 4/5 (80%) | 2/4 (50%) | 11/14 (78.6%) |
| Actress | 4/5 (80%) | 5/5 (100%) | 3/4 (75%) | 12/14 (85.7%) |
| Supporting Actor | 4/5 (80%) | 3/5 (60%) | 3/4 (75%) | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Supporting Actress | 3/5 (60%) | 3/5 (60%) | 3/4 (75%) | 9/14 (64.2%) |
| Adapted Screenplay | 4/5 (80%) | 3/5 (60%) | 2/4 (50%) | 9/14 (64.2%) |
| Original Screenplay | 4/5 (80%) | 5/5 (100%) | 3/4 (75%) | 12/14 (85.7%) |
| Cinematography | 5/5 (100%) | 5/5 (100%) | 3/4 (75%) | 13/14 (92.9%) |
| Film Editing | 5/5 (100%) | 5/5 (100%) | 2/4 (50%) | 12/14 (85.7%) |
| Animated Film | 0/0 (---%) | 0/0 (---%) | 3/3 (100%) | 3/3 (100%) |
| Foriegn Film | 3/5 (60%) | 5/5 (100%) | 2/4 (50%) | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Documentary | 3/5 (60%) | 4/5 (80%) | 3/4 (75%) | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Art Direction | 4/5 (80%) | 4/5 (80%) | 2/4 (50%) | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Costume Design | 2/5 (40%) | 4/5 (80%) | 2/4 (50%) | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Makeup | 5/5 (100%) | 2/5 (40%) | 3/4 (75%) | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Comedic Score | 0/0 (---%) | 2/4 (50%) | 0/0 (---%) | 2/4 (50%) |
| Dramatic Score | 5/5 (100%) | 4/5 (80%) | 2/4 (50%) | 11/14 (78.6%) |
| Original Song | 5/5 (100%) | 4/5 (80%) | 1/4 (25%) | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Sound | 4/5 (80%) | 3/5 (60%) | 1/4 (25%) | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Sound Effects | 5/5 (100%) | 4/5 (80%) | 4/4 (100%) | 13/14 (92.9%) |
| Visual Effects | 4/4 (100%) | 4/5 (80%) | 3/4 (75%) | 11/13 (84.6%) |
Analysis by:
David Perry
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