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Oscar '01 Nominee Predictions

Opening Commentary:  Time came down to the wire for this year's final nominations predictions -- normally I would have been able to write complete commentary in each category earlier than two days before the actual announcement of the nominees.  For the most part I'm happy with most of my predictions this year, though many of them are dependent upon the belief that films like A Beautiful Mind, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, and Black Hawk Down will sweep in many categories.

Nota Bene: I am not the king of Oscar nominee predictions. Alex Fung is much better at the nominees. My claim to fame is predicting the winners, where I had won a competition for three straight years (and that's not even including the year that I predicted the Juliette Binoche upset in 1996) until my mediocre job last year. The week before the Academy Awards, I'll have a special column out on who should win and who will win. Take that closer to home -- take this with a grain of salt.

In parenthesis are awards and nominations given in that category (NBR = National Board of Review, LAFC = Los Angles Film Critics, NYFC = New York Film Critics, BFC = Boston Film Critics, TFC = Toronto Film Critics, BrFC = Broadcast Film Critics, SDFC = San Diego Film Critics, NSFC = National Society of Film Critics, CFC = Chicago Film Critics, FFC = Florida Film Critics, SeFC = Southeastern Film Critics, KFC = Kansas Film Critics, LVFC = Las Vegas Film Critics, DFC = Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics, PFC = Phoenix Film Critics, VFC = Vancouver Film Critics, OFCS = Online Film Critics Society, EFA = European Film Awards, AFI = American Film Institute, BAFTA = British Academy Awards, GS = Golden Satellites, GG = Golden Globes, IS = Independent Spirit Awards, WGA = Writers Guild, SAG = Screen Actors Guild, PGA = Producers Guild, ASC = Society of Cinematographers, ACE = Cinema Editors, ADG = Art Directors, CDG = Costume Designers Guild, MAG = Makeup Artists Guild, MPSE = Sound Editors, CAS = Cinema Audio Society, DGA = Directors Guild; [H] = Honorary Award, W = Winner, N = Nominee or Runner-Up).  And *** denotes a film or artist that has a pretty good chance of upsetting my top five (I will have no more than 3 in a category).

[CLICK HERE FOR PREDICTIONS TO ACTUAL NOMINATIONS COMPARISON]

Best Picture

10 February Predictions – 3 of 5 from 22 December
A Beautiful Mind (W: BrFC, DFC, GG; N: NBR, CFC, SeFC, PFC, AFI, BAFTA, PGA)
Black Hawk Down (N: AFI)
In the Bedroom (W: LAFC, NYFC [H], TFC [H], GS; N: NBR, NYFC, BrFC, SeFC, DFC, OFCS, AFI, GG, IS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: KFC, PFC, AFI, GS; N: BFC, BrFC, NSFC, CFC, SeFC, DFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GG, PGA)
Moulin Rouge (W: NBR, EFA, GS, GG; N: BrFC, SeFC, DFC, VFC, AFI, BAFTA, PGA)

Other Possibilities: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Ali, Amélie, ***Gosford Park, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone,  Iris, The Man Who Wasn't There, ***Memento, ***Mulholland Dr., The Others, The Royal Tenenbaums, The Shipping News, Shrek.

Every year Oscar prognosticators make the same remark: "this is one of the toughest years to predict in Oscar history." Is this always true? Of course not, 1997's awards were some of the easiest nominees to imagine in the weeks before they were announced. And sometimes, as with last year, the races look hard but are actually quite easy (I won't say that predicting the 2000 winners, however, was an easy chore).

So, let me call on this phrase once for this column and call it a day: this is one of the toughest years to predict in Oscar history. We have social, political, international, and domestic issues all weighing on voters that is almost impossible to gauge. Ali, a film which looked like a shoo-in for a nomination two months ago, has disappeared into the list of also-rans -- don't expect this film about the second most famous Muslim to make the cut (and, for the record, Ali's abysmal chances are not necessarily the product of Mohammed Ali's religion, but because of the film's poor box office take and that it is, well, not that great a film).

The film that will come into the list based a great deal on the current climate is Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down. The requisite jingoist film has played to packed crowds for the last few weeks and was praised by many within the industry. The idea of a Best Picture nominee from Jerry Bruckheimer may seem like one of the least likely occurrences in the history of the Academy Awards, but it looks like it might just muster the support needed to make the shortlist.

Another late bloomer is the musical Moulin Rouge, an odd amalgam of garish musical numbers that has support from people I never would have expected (oh, and I liked the film). All That Jazz in 1979 and Beauty and the Beast in 1991 were the only quasi-musicals to receive a nomination in the last 25 years. I'm still riding the fence on Moulin Rouge's chances -- while it does seem to have a large collection of supporters (including many of the influential guilds and press groups), the film's style is so off-beat that I cannot believe the most conservative Academy voters will be willing to embrace it (the same case can be made for David Lynch's Mulholland Dr.). But, then again, it is a better choice than fellow Producer's Guild nominees Shrek and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone.

Black Hawk Down and Moulin Rouge are both on thin ice -- their positions could easily be filled by anything from Robert Altman's meticulous costume drama/comedy Gosford Park and Christopher Nolan's critic's darling Memento.

The other PGA nominees The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring and A Beautiful Mind have their nominations in the bag and Miramax has fought so hard for their little gem In the Bedroom that a natural disaster would have to occur to keep it out of the running.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Director

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
Robert Altman - Gosford Park (W: NYFC, NSFC, AFI, GG; N: LAFC, CFC, VFC, BAFTA)
Ron Howard - A Beautiful Mind (W: BrFC, DFC; N: CFC, PFC, BAFTA, GG, DGA)
Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: NBR [H], FFC, KFC, LVFC, PFC; N: BFC, TFC, BrFC, NSFC, CFC, SeFC, VFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GG, DGA)
David Lynch - Mulholland Dr. (W: LAFC, BFC, TFC, OFCS; N: NYFC, NSFC, CFC, PFC, VFC, AFI, GG)
Ridley Scott - Black Hawk Down (N: AFI, DGA)

Other Possibilities: Alejandro Amenábar for The Others, Wes Anderson for The Royal Tenenbaums, Joel Coen for The Man Who Wasn't There, Frank Darabont for The Majestic, ***Todd Field for In the Bedroom, Lasse Hallström for The Shipping News, Jean-Pierre Jeunet for Amélie, ***Baz Luhrmann for Moulin Rouge, Michael Mann for Ali, ***Christopher Nolan for Memento, Steven Spielberg for A.I.: Artificial Intelligence.

Generally the easiest way to predict this category is to take the Directors Guild nominees, but this is not true for this year's slate. The DGA went with Ron Howard, Peter Jackson, Baz Luhrmann, Christopher Nolan, and Ridley Scott -- but that leaves a gaping hole: Robert Altman. The director, who has already won the Golden Globe and AFI Award for his work on the Gosford Park, seems like the unquestionable frontrunner. The DGA is made up of both film and TV directors; the Academy Directors Branch is only film directors, and, therefore, more likely to feel pushed to support an old pro like Altman (and, to a lesser degree, David Lynch). One warning: Altman is not someone who plays well with others and his cranky side has been widely covered (including a recent indictment of the post-war Bush administration).

Ridley Scott should be able to get a nomination, at least, as long as the film is welcomed like I expect it to. Black Hawk Down is sometimes a visual wonder and Scott has the great edge of being a loser last year even though his film won. If Black Hawk Down does not go over with the Academy as well as I'm predicting, non-DGA nominee Todd Field or nominee Christopher Nolan will probably fill the void.

Howard and Jackson, like their films, will get their nomination quite easily.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Actor

10 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 22 December
Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind (W: BrFC, DFC, PFC, GG; N: SDFC, CFC, VFC, OFCS, AFI, BAFTA, GS, SAG)
Will Smith - Ali (N: BrFC, GG)
Billy Bob Thornton - The Man Who Wasn't There (W: NBR, FFC, SeFC, OFCS; N: PFC, AFI, GS, GG)
Denzel Washington - Training Day (W: LAFC, BFC, KFC, AFI; N: NYFC, NSFC, CFC, OFCS, GS, GG, SAG)
Tom Wilkinson - In the Bedroom (W: NYFC; N: LAFC, NSFC, CFC, SeFC, VFC, OFCS, AFI, BAFTA, IS, SAG)

Other Possibilities: ***Gene Hackman for The Royal Tenenbaums, Kevin Kline for Life as a House, Ewan McGregor for Moulin Rouge, John Cameron Mitchell for Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Haley Joel Osment for A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, ***Guy Pearce for Memento, ***Sean Penn for I Am Sam, Kevin Spacey for The Shipping News.

Defending champion Russell Crowe and oft bridesmaid Denzel Washington should gracefully stride into nominations for A Beautiful Mind and Training Day, respectively. The other contenders all have huge hurdles to pass: each other.

Tom Wilkinson gave the year's most devastating performance as the grieving dad in In the Bedroom; Gene Hackman took his normal character to a comedic high in The Royal Tenenbaums; Will Smith morphed into the charismatic Mohammed Ali in Ali; Billy Bob Thornton redefined casual with his down barber in The Man Who Wasn't There; Guy Pearce wore the confusion of his character in almost every inch of his face in Memento; and Sean Penn paused from his bad-boy persona to give a showy performance as a retarded Kramer (as in Kramer vs. Kramer) in I Am Sam.

Any of these gentlemen could fill the three open spots, with the resounding possibility of an upset from someone unnamed. I'm going with Smith, Thornton, and Wilkinson -- something tells me these will be the three other players, though my prediction could be little more than the equivalent of flipping a coin.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind.

Best Actress

10 February Predictions – 3 of 5 from 22 December
Halle Berry - Monster's Ball (W: NBR, PFC; N: CFC, SeFC, AFI, GS, GG, SAG)
Judi Dench - Iris (N: PFC, BAFTA, GS, GG, SAG)
Nicole Kidman - The Others (W: KFC; N: PFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GS, GG)
Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom (W: LAFC, NYFC, BrFC, FFC, SeFC, DFC, VFC, AFI, GS, GG; N: NSFC, CFC, OFCS, BAFTA, IS, SAG)
Naomi Watts - Mulholland Dr. (W: NBR [H], SDFC, NSFC, LVFC, OFCS; N: LAFC, NYFC, BFC, CFC, AFI)

Other Possibilities: Thora Birch for Ghost World, Cate Blanchett for Charlotte Grey, Stockard Channing for The Business of Strangers, ***Nicole Kidman for Moulin Rouge, Julianne Moore for The Shipping News, Charlotte Rampling for Under the Sand, ***Tilda Swinton for The Deep End, Audrey Tatou for Amélie, ***Renée Zellweger for Bridget Jones's Diary.

Nicole Kidman gets to be the prolific nominee this year, leaving people wondering which of her performances will make the cut for the Academy Award. Her more showy Moulin Rouge performance has lost some of its steam giving an edge to her performance in The Others. Oh, and the fact that Miramax is pushing the latter film doesn't hurt.

Critic's darlings Sissy Spacek and Halle Berry should come in with their small films. Meanwhile, regular nominee (this would make four nominations in five years) Judi Dench could come in with her performance as Iris Murdoch in Iris.

In my last Oscar column, I bemoaned the Naomi Watts quandary, now I must bemoan the fact that her strength to get a nomination has waned. Renée Zellweger and Tilda Swinton are both more than willing to replace the young Australian in the fifth position. I, of course, support Watts for a nomination (she is, in my opinion, the best actress from an English-language film this yearI know my foreign favorites Charlotte Rampling and Lena Endre are highly doubtful) in the same way I support Universal moving her out of the Best Supporting Actress competition (who was she supporting?) and into the Best Actress field.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom.

Best Supporting Actor

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
Jim Broadbent - Iris (W: NBR, LAFC, GG; N: NYFC, BrFC, PFC, BAFTA, GS, SAG)
Steve Buscemi - Ghost World (W: NYFC, SDFC [H], NSFC, KFC, LVFC, VFC, OFCS; N: BFC, TFC, SDFC, CFC, SeFC, PFC, OFCS [H], AFI, GS, GG, IS)
Ben Kingsley - Sexy Beast (W: BFC, TFC, BrFC, SDFC, FFC, SeFC, DFC, PFC, EFA, GS; N: LAFC, NYFC, NSFC, CFC, OFCS, GG, SAG)
Ian McKellen - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: PFC [H]; N: TFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GS, SAG)
Jon Voight - Ali (N: BrFC, CFC, GG)

Other Possibilities: ***Hayden Christensen for Life as a House, Brian Cox for L.I.E., Gene Hackman for The Royal Tenenbaums, Ed Harris for A Beautiful Mind, Ethan Hawke for Training Day, ***Jude Law for A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, ***Joe Pantoliano for Memento, Tony Shalhoub for The Man Who Wasn't There.

Like his Moulin Rouge costar Jim Broadbent comes into this year's race with two possible films to receive a nomination from. The Moulin Rouge role (a far more flamboyant turn for the actor) seems to have fallen to the wayside for his Iris performance. The unexpected Golden Globe win definitely helps his chances.

I could be eating my words this Tuesday, but Best Supporting Actor has to be one of the easiest competitions this year. No real frontrunner has emerged, but four men have successfully made their mark in the five positions: Jim Broadbent, Steve Buscemi, Ben Kingley, and Ian McKellen have all settled. Jon Voight should get that fifth spot unless the Academy voters decide to vote for one of the worst performances this year, Hayden Christenson's Globe and SAG nominated performance in Life as a House.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Jim Broadbent - Iris.

Best Supporting Actress

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
Jennifer Connelly - A Beautiful Mind (W: BrFC, SeFC, KFC, PFC, OFCS, AFI, GG; N: CFC, BAFTA, GS, SAG)
Helen Mirren - Gosford Park (W: NYFC, BrFC [H], NSFC, FFC [H], OFCS [H]; N: LAFC, CFC, PFC [H], OFCS, BAFTA, GS, GG, SAG)
Maggie Smith - Gosford Park (W: BrFC [H], FFC [H], SeFC, KFC, OFCS [H]; N: NYFC, SDFC, NSFC, CFC, PFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GS, GG, SAG [H])
Marisa Tomei - In the Bedroom (W: SeFC, DFC; N: BrFC, NSFC, CFC, PFC, OFCS, GS, GG, SAG [H])
Kate Winslet - Iris (W: LAFC; N: BAFTA, GS, GG)

Other Possibilities: ***Cate Blanchett for Bandits, ***Judi Dench for The Shipping News, ***Cameron Diaz for Vanilla Sky, Angelica Huston for The Royal Tenenbaums, Scarlet Johansson for Ghost World, Frances McDormand for The Man Who Wasn't There, Gwyneth Paltrow for The Royal Tenenbaums, Emily Watson for Gosford Park.

There are fourteen important female roles in Robert Altman's Gosford Park, so the fact that two actresses, Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren, have passed the rest and settled into probable Oscar nominations is quite commendable.

There are not many other ladies pushing into this category, where Jennifer Connelly has emerged as a major frontrunner and the Gosford gals have ensured their places. Marisa Tomei and Kate Winslet have both taken much acclaim for their roles and should fill the two open positions, though Cameron Diaz (!) and another nomination for Judi Dench (!!) are still possibilities.

Oh, and for the record, Cate Blanchett (for The Shipping News) and Gwyneth Paltrow will be robbed if they do not get nominations.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Jennifer Connelly - A Beautiful Mind.

Best Adapted Screenplay

10 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 22 December
A Beautiful Mind - Akiva Goldsman (W: GG; N: BrFC, SDFC, CFC, PFC, AFI, BAFTA, GS, WGA)
Ghost World - Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff (W: SDFC; N: LAFC, BFC, TFC, NSFC, CFC, SeFC, PFC, OFCS, AFI, IS [H], WGA)
In the Bedroom - Rob Festinger and Todd Field (W: NBR, GS; N: OFCS, AFI, IS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Frank Walsh, Philippa Boyens, and Peter Jackson (W: SeFC, PFC; N: OFCS, BAFTA, GS, WGA)
The Shipping News - Robert Nelson Jacobs

Other Possibilities: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence by Steven Spielberg, ***Black Hawk Down by Ken Nolan and Steven Zaillian, ***Bridget Jones's Diary by Helen Fielding, Andrew Davies, and Richard Curtis, The Deep End by Scott McGhee and David Siegel, ***Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone by Steve Kloves, Iris by Richard Eyre and Charles Wood, Shrek by Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio, Vanilla Sky by Cameron Crowe.

The adapted screenplay competition this year proved rather lackluster, with most of the prominent screenplays coming from original ideas. The probable nominees did not come from the fiction shelf this year, instead adapting a biography (A Beautiful Mind), a fantasy epic (The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring), a short story (In the Bedroom), and a graphic novel (Ghost World).

Real-life account Black Hawk Down and children's novel Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone also make their pushes, though the fifth position will probably instead come from a screenplay out of left field. I'm going with The Shipping News if only because it has the Miramax machine behind it.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  A Beautiful Mind - Akiva Goldsman.

Best Original Screenplay

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
Gosford Park - Julian Fellowes (W: NYFC, NSFC; N: SDFC, CFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GG, WGA)
The Man Who Wasn't There - Joel and Ethan Coen (N: BrFC, SeFC, PFC, OFCS, GG, WGA)
Memento - Christopher Nolan (W: LAFC, BFC, TFC, BrFC, FFC, SeFC, LVFC, PFC, OFCS, AFI; N: NYFC, NSFC, CFC, GS, GG, IS)
Moulin Rouge - Baz Luhrmann and Craig Pierce (N: BAFTA, GS, WGA)
Mulholland Dr. - David Lynch (W: OFCS; N: GG)

Other Possibilities: Ali by Eric Roth and Michael Mann, Amélie by Jean-Pierre Jeunet and Guillaume Laurant, ***Monster's Ball by Milo Addica and Will Rokos, ***The Others by Alejandro Amenábar, ***The Royal Tenenbaums by Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson.

For Best Original Screenplay, it is hard to not note the precursor awards and their strong support of Gosford Park, The Man Who Wasn't There, and especially Memento (the debate, I believe, is over, the script will count as original and not adapted). Monster's Ball and The Royal Tenenbaums, two other precursor favorites, should pose a threat.

Moulin Rouge was not a film highly touted for its writing, but the film might turn out with a small sweep in some key categories and this could be one of them. If Moulin Rouge makes it into the Best Picture race, even if left out for Best Director, it should come off with a nomination here.

I'm filling the fifth spot with David Lynch's Mulholland Dr. screenplay. Sure, this might just be wishful thinking, but in my mind, this is a script of such painstaking depth and confusion that the writers might just take notice and include it in their list. Here's hoping.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Memento - Christopher Nolan.

Best Cinematography

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence - Janusz Kaminski (N: CFC, OFCS, AFI)
Black Hawk Down - Slavomir Idziak (N: PFC, AFI, BAFTA)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Andrew Lesnie (W: LVFC, DFC, PFC; N: CFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GS, ASC)
The Man Who Wasn't There - Roger Deakins (W: LAFC, BFC, SDFC, FFC, OFCS, AFI, GS; N: NYFC, NSFC, CFC, PFC, BAFTA, ASC)
Moulin Rouge - Donald McAlpine (N: SDFC, CFC, PFC, OFCS, BAFTA, GS, ASC)

Other Possibilities: Ali, Amélie, ***A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, Hearts in Atlantis, In the Bedroom, ***In the Mood for Love, Memento, ***Mulholland Dr., Ocean's 11, The Others, Pearl Harbor, The Shipping News, The Vertical Ray of the Sun.

The American Society of Cinematographer are often taken by veterans when making their list, which is all the more discouraging for Janusz Kaminski's bid for a nomination. The A.I. photographer and Spielberg regular was left out of a seemingly solid grouping released by the union if it were not for the fact that I cannot fathom the Academy failing to see the grand achievement Kaminski unleashes, I might not stick with him in my predictions.

ASC also chose John Schwartzman for Pearl Harbor. This could be a year for the filming the American flag if Schwartzman and Black Hawk Down director of photography Slavomir Idziak are nominated -- however, I have my doubts that two nationalist films with make the cut. Schwartzman or Idziak: I'm giving the latter the edge since his film is far more respected than the former's.

Other ASC nominees Moulin Rouge's Donald McAlpine, The Lord of the Rings' Andrew Lesnie, and The Man Who Wasn't There's Roger Deakins should follow suit with the Academy come Tuesday. McAlpine and Lesnie are part of a possible sweep by their films and Deakins looks to be the strong frontrunner this early in the race. Then again, speaking of sweeps, the same case can be made for A Beautiful Mind's DP.

Should the Academy yearn to really acknowledge the work of a genius cinematographer, Christopher Doyle will have a nomination for his work on In the Mood for Love, the most alluringly stylish film of the year.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Man Who Wasn't There.

Best Film Editing

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
A Beautiful Mind - Mike Hill and Dan Henley (N: GS, ACE)
Black Hawk Down - Pietro Scalia (N: PFC, AFI, BAFTA, ACE)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - John Gilbert (W: GS; N: PFC, BAFTA, ACE)
Memento - Dody Dorn (W: LVFC, PFC; N: AFI, ACE)
Moulin Rouge - Jill Bilcock (W: AFI; N: PFC, BAFTA, GS, ACE)

Other Possibilities: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, ***Ali, ***Amélie, Gosford Park, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, ***Mulholland Dr., Ocean's 11, The Others.

I just want to reiterate my feelings on this one more time before retiring this complaint: how could the Academy not nominated Requiem for a Dream in this category? Not only was it the best editing for the year, but for the history of cinema.

As I continue writing this year's final predictions commentary, I'm recognizing how dependent I am on some films sweeping through many categories. The Best Editing category seems like a meeting place for the four films I'm most often referring to for nominations. This is not to say that the editing by Moulin Rouge's Jill Bilcock, The Lord of the Rings' John Gilbert, A Beautiful Mind's Mike Hill and Dan Henley, and Black Hawk Down's Pietro Scalia. Sure, all these films were also nominated by the American Cinema Editors Awards, but that group nominated fourteen films this year in three categories.

Ali's pitch-perfect editing and the zaniness present in Amélie make them highly likely candidates to fill the final position. However, Dody Dorn's work on Memento could be the secured fifth spot with Dorn's often creative work on the Nolan film.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Sound

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
Ali (N: MPSE)
Black Hawk Down (N: BAFTA, MPSE, CAS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: GS; N: BAFTA, MPSE, CAS)
Moulin Rouge (N: BAFTA, GS, MPSE, CAS)
Planet of the Apes (N: MPSE)

Other Possibilities: Driven, Hannibal, ***Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, The Fast and the Furious, Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within, A Knight's Tale, Jurassic Park III, ***Memento, The Others, ***Pearl Harbor, Shrek, Swordfish.

The Motion Picture Sound Editors did not help this category too much this year -- their decision to have as many as ten nominees in seven categories has left every possible nominee with a precursor recognition. Thankfully the Cinema Audio Society has come in to help (though, I'd like to know something: who is the Cinema Audio Society?).

CAS went with Black Hawk Down, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge, Pearl Harbor, and Shrek, all highly likely nominees. Black Hawk Down and Lord of the Rings should be able get their nominations and Moulin Rouge, a film crutched by its sound, should have this nomination in the bag.

I'm a little weary about the other two. While Pearl Harbor and Shrek are both quite notable efforts in sound design, neither of them quite meet the work of Ali, which had some of the best sound work this year even if the film was misguided. That fifth spot I'm giving to Planet of the Apes, an outside chance that might just make it in on the grounds that, well, it had some pretty good sound (though the movie is horrendous). Let's see if the sound voters agree with me on those two (even if they should nominate Hedwig and the Angry Inch and A.I. instead).

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Sound Effects Editing

10 February Predictions – 1 of 3 from 22 December
Black Hawk Down (N: MPSE, CAS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: MPSE, CAS)
Pearl Harbor (N: MPSE, CAS)

Other Possibilities: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, ***Amélie, ***The Fast and the Furious, Monsters, Inc.

It's hard to chose from the seven films the Academy left in contention for this category. Every films except Monsters, Inc. is highly likely to come out with a nomination, even Pearl Harbor. I'm going with the easy two (The Lord of the Rings and Black Hawk Down) and inserting Pearl Harbor for the last spot. Yeah, there's nothing to really say that it has an edge over The Fast and the Furious, but it does have enough explosions and grandeur to unleash in its bombing sequence that makes me think it might get this nomination.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Visual Effects

10 February Predictions – 2 of 3 from 22 December
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence (N: PFC, AFI, BAFTA)
Black Hawk Down
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: LVFC, PFC, AFI, GS; N: BAFTA)

Other Possibilities: Cats and Dogs, The Fast and the Furious, ***Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Jurassic Park III, ***Pearl Harbor.

Like Best Sound Effects Editing, this is a category ripe with possibilities even if the Academy has narrowed the field down to eight.

Once again, The Lord of the Rings (does anyone think this will not be the film with most nominations this year) has its nomination, though regular also-ran Black Hawk Down does not have its nomination as easily lined up. It may still make the cut, but more effects-heavy films like A.I., The Fast and the Furious, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, and Pearl Harbor all have their eyes on the gold. Only Cats and Dogs (they already awarded Babe) and Jurassic Park III (they already awarded, well, Jurassic Park) seem to be out of the running.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Makeup

10 February Predictions – 2 of 3 from 22 December
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence (N: PFC, MAG)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (N: PFC, BAFTA)
Planet of the Apes (W: PFC; N: BAFTA, MAG)

Other Possibilities: A Beautiful Mind, ***Hannibal, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, ***Moulin Rouge.

If the Academy nominates A Beautiful Mind in this category it will be one of most laughably inept decisions the group has made in years. Did anyone really think that the aging makeup used in the film's latter scenes was near realistic -- Robbie Coltraine in Harry Potter looked more like an elderly Russell Crowe (or Jennifer Connelly, for that matter)!

The Lord of the Rings and Planet of the Apes, with their extensive creature designing should get their nominations easily (now, the real question is, who will win between the two?). The third spot will probably go to A.I. which uses far more makeup (who says quantity doesn't facilitate quality when it comes with the Academy Awards?) than the other choices.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Costume Design

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
Gosford Park (N: PFC)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (N: PFC, CDG)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: LVFC, PFC; N: GS)
Moulin Rouge (W: GS; N: PFC)
The Others

Other Possibilities: The Affair of the Necklace, A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, A Beautiful Mind, ***Black Hawk Down, Enemy at the Gates, From Hell, Hannibal, ***Hedwig and the Angry Inch, ***Planet of the Apes, The Royal Tenenbaums.

Only one film, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, seems to have made a death grasp on a nomination. Costume Designers Guild nominee and fellow fantasy blockbuster Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone should have the same fate come Tuesday, though it is the only CDG nominee that can say it (Blow? Legally Blonde? The Royal Tenenbaums?).

It would be great to see Hedwig and the Angry Inch receive a nomination, but Moulin Rouge will probably turn out as the only musical up for the award. Of those two films, only Hedwig came out with an CDG award nomination, though the pickings from CDG this year will probably not weigh on the Oscars too much -- nominated films like Mulholland Dr. and Planet of the Apes will probably be replaced by artier films like Gosford Park and The Others.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Art Direction

10 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 22 December
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence (N: PFC, AFI, ADG)
Gosford Park (N: AFI, BAFTA, GS)
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (N: PFC, BAFTA, GS, ADG)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: NBR, PFC, AFI; N: LAFC, SDFC, BAFTA, GS, ADG)
Moulin Rouge (W: LAFC, SDFC, GS; N: PFC, BAFTA, ADG)

Other Possibilities: The Affair of the Necklace, Amélie, A Beautiful Mind, ***Black Hawk Down, Enemy at the Gates, From Hell, Hannibal, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, ***The Others, ***Planet of the Apes, The Royal Tenenbaums.

Leftfield entries often appear in this category and that may occur again this year. While no clear leftfield movie has emerged (as is the case considering they are from the leftfield), some strong probabilities have taken spots. The requisite Lord of the Rings nomination will naturally occur, as will the huge designs in Harry Potter, Moulin Rouge, and Gosford Park.

The Others, Planet of the Apes, The Royal Tenenbaums, and A.I.: Artificial Intelligence are all clear upstarts for the fifth position, with no film having any clear advantage. I'm going with A.I. partly because its Art Directors Guild nomination and partly because I cannot believe that the Academy could fail to honor the terrific Rick Carter production design on the Spielberg film.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.

Best Original Score

10 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 22 December
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence - John Williams (N: BrFC, CFC, OFCS, GG)
Amélie - Yann Tiersen
A Beautiful Mind - James Horner (N: CFC, PFC, GS, GG)
Black Hawk Down - Hans Zimmer
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Howard Shore (W: LAFC, BrFC, LVFC, PFC; N: CFC, OFCS, AFI, BAFTA, GG)

Other Possibilities: Ali by Lisa Gerrard and Pieter Bourke, ***Gosford Park by Patrick Doyle, Hannibal by Hans Zimmer, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone by John Williams, The Man Who Wasn't There by Carter Burwell, Memento by David Julyan, ***Mulholland Dr. by Angelo Badalamenti, The Others by Alejandro Amenábar, ***Pearl Harbor by Hans Zimmer, The Shipping News by Christopher Young, Shrek by Harry Gregson-Williams.

[After writing this, it was brought to my attention that Moulin Rouge has been deemed ineligible and replaced it with Yann Tiersen's Amélie score.]

The prolific Hans Zimmer must be the music branch's Judi Dench; the composer has been nominated five times in the last five years, with no win since 1994's The Lion King. Zimmer has three scores this year that could bring him an eighth career nomination. Hannibal is the only weak one of the bunch, but his other Ridley Scott film, Black Hawk Down, looks to be his chance at going to the nominee luncheon again. And, just for good measure, his score to Pearl Harbor might bring him a ninth nomination.

Speaking of returning nominees, James Horner (nominated four time in the last five years, seven nominations in all) and John Williams (nominated eight times in the last five years, thirty-nine nominations in all) could get return with their work from A Beautiful Mind and A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, respectively. The branch like to return to past nominees and these three men are more than happy to come in with that fact.

Canadian Howard Shore and Australian Craig Armstrong would like to get their first nominations for their highly lauded scores to The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring and Moulin Rouge (literally every major score award this year has been given to one of these two men). However, Miramax would love to replace any of these men with Yann Tiersen and Amélie -- the distributor has had great luck with foreign scores in this category and would love to recreate the Life is Beautiful and Il Postino wins of the past.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - Howard Shore.

Best Original Song

10 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 22 December
"For Always" - A.I.: Artificial Intelligence
"May It Be" - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (W: BrFC, LVFC, PFC; N: GG)
"There You'll Be" - Pearl Harbor (N: BrFC, GS, GG)
"Until..." - Kate & Leopold (W: GG; N: BrFC)
"Vanilla Sky" - Vanilla Sky (W: BrFC; N: PFC, GS, GG)

Other Possibilities: ***"All That Love Can Be" from A Beautiful Mind, ***"If I Didn't Have You" from Monsters, Inc., "Vide Cor Meum" from Hannibal, "Where the Dream Takes You" from Atlantis: The Lost Empire, ***"The World's Greatest" from Ali, "You Can't Walk Away from Love" from Original Sin.

Has there been a worse year for original songs? The best songs in films this year -- Mulholland Dr.'s "Lorando," Moulin Rouge's "Come What May," The Princess and the Warrior's "Fly With Me," Hannibal's "Vide Cor Meum," Amores Perros' "De Perros Amores" -- are all ineligible for various reasons, meaning that the race is between forgettable treacle found in Pearl Harbor, Vanilla Sky, and Kate & Leopold thanks to Diane Warren, Paul McCartney, and Sting, respectively.

Any year when "For Always," a beautiful but forgettable background piece from A.I., is the best song in the running, its time to try and forget about this race and go on to another.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  "Vanilla Sky" - Vanilla Sky.

Best Animated Film

10 February Predictions – 3 of 3 from 22 December
Monsters, Inc. (W: PFC; N: LAFC, NYFC, BrFC, OFCS, GS)
Shrek (W: NBR, LAFC, BrFC, FFC, KFC, LVFC, DFC, PFC, OFCS; N: NYFC, GS)
Waking Life (W: NYFC, NSFC [H]; N: BrFC, CFC [H], PFC, OFCS, IS)

Other Possibilities: ***Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within, Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, Marco Polo: Return to Xanadu, Osmosis Jones, The Prince of Light, The Trumpet of the Swan, ***Vampire Hunter D: Bloodlust.

I think that this category has been a three film race since it was announced -- Dreamworks vs. Disney is about to occur again while the little experimental film from Fox Searchlight sits on the sidelines. Before I make myself look like an idiot, I have not seen Marco Polo: Return to Xanadu, The Prince of Light, and The Trumpet of the Swan -- while their chances do look slim beside the big three competitors, there may be something about one of these films (like The Old Man and the Sea in the Best Animated Short category a couple years ago) that will bring it into the fray.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Shrek.

Best Documentary Feature

10 February Predictions
A Child's Century of War
Dogtown and Z Boys (N: IS)
Lalee's Kin: The Legacy of Cotton (N: IS)
Promises (N: IS)
We Stand Alone Together

Other Possibilities: ***Children Underground, ***Murder on a Sunday Morning, ***My Khmer Heart, War Photographer, Westray.

As per history, this category has been perfectly fixed to knock out any potential nominees that are at least recognizable. The Gleaners and I, Sobibor, 14 September 1943, 4 p.m., and The Endurance: Shackleton's Legendary Antarctic Expedition somehow failed to make the first short list (a travesty in some of those cases). The only film in the bunch that has received any press is indie favorite Dogtown and Z Boys.

Considering the deluge of war films in this group, the Academy might become weary and not nominate some, however the kid minded A Child's Century of War and especially Promises (about kids reactions to the conflicts in the Middle East) should receive nominations with Steven Spielberg's We Stand Alone Together (dealing with the story behind the miniseries Band of Brothers).

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Promises.

Best Foreign Language Film

10 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 22 December
Amélie - Jean-Pierre Jeunet (France) (W: BrFC, SDFC, FFC, SeFC, KFC, DFC, PFC, OFCS, EFA; N: NBR, CFC, BAFTA, GG, IS)
Behind the Sun - Walter Salles (Brazil) (N: NBR, BAFTA, GG)
No Man's Land - Danis Tanovic (Bosnia-Herzegovina) (W: LAFC, LVFC, GS, GG; N: NBR, NYFC, BrFC, CFC, SeFC, PFC, OFCS)
The Piano Teacher - Michael Haneke (Austria) (N: EFA, BAFTA)
The Son's Room - Nanni Moretti (Italy) (N: EFA)

Other Possibilities: ***Columbia's Our Lady of the Assassins from Barbet Schroeder, ***Czech Republic's Dark Blue World from Jan Sverak, Denmark's Italian for Beginners from Lone Scherfig, Germany's Das Experiment from Oliver Hirschbiegel, Iran's Baran from Majid Majidi, Russia's The Romanovs: An Imperial Family from Gleb Panfilov, ***Switzerland's In Praise of Love from Jean-Luc Godard.

A couple months ago, the idea that Amélie would not be an easy frontrunner in this category would have been squashed by any prognosticator -- the Miramax-marketed film looked like an easy pick á la All About My Mother, Life is Beautiful, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. But now, with its surprise loss at the Golden Globes, Amélie might actually turn out shafted come Oscar night. Its nomination is still highly likely, but the next month may decide the fate of the Jeunet crowd-pleaser with Oscar.

[As an aside, I am rather unhappy that France decided to go with Amélie as their film this year. While I did like the film, the country has a far superior delegate in Fraçois Ozon's masterpiece Under the Sand.]

The film that won the Golden Globe, No Man's Land will almost certainly receive a nomination (understandably, Danis Tanovic's satire on the war in the Balkans is one of the best imports this year). It and Behind the Sun by Walter Salles (last nominated in this category for Central Station three years ago) should make the list.

I'm also going with two Cannes favorites, The Son's Room and Palme d'Or winner The Piano Teacher. Cannes is not always the best precursor but, with a lack of information on many of these films, its just going to have to do for the time being.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Amélie - Jean-Pierre Jeunet (France).

Best Live Action Short & Best Animated Short

Due to the fact that the Academy has chosen not to give a short list in these categories, I have no way of predicting them.

--FINAL TALLY--

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring...14
Black Hawk Down...8
A Beautiful Mind...7
Moulin Rouge...7
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence...6
Gosford Park...6
In the Bedroom...5
Ali...3
Iris...3
The Man Who Wasn't There...3
Mulholland Dr....3
Amélie...2
Ghost World...2
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone...2
Memento...2
The Others...2
Pearl Harbor...2
Planet of the Apes...2
Behind the Sun...1
A Child's Century of War...1
Dogtown and Z Boys...1
Kate & Leopold...1
Lalee's Kin: The Legacy of Cotton...1
Monters, Inc....1
Monster's Ball...1
No Man's Land...1
The Piano Teacher...1
Promises...1
Sexy Beast...1
The Shipping News...1
Shrek...1
The Son's Room...1
Training Day...1
Vanilla Sky...1
Waking Life...1
We Stand Alone Together...1

Analysis by:
David Perry
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