It wouldn’t be Oscar season without a little controversy over high-profile snubs, whether the desired narrative is that the Academy doesn’t care about Danish toys, film critics, or, like George W. Bush, black people. Beyond that, though, there are a wealth of really close races to try to figure out ahead of the ceremony on Feb. 22. In part because of the notable omissions of The Lego Movie, Life Itself, and Selma, we have more wide-open races than any ceremony in recent memory. My educated guesses and shots in the dark are outlined below. For my own choices (referenced in the “Shoulda Been a Contender” choices for each category) check out my 2014 year-end awards.
Best Picture
Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Birdman
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: Two Days, One Night
Enough has already been written about the perceived bias at work that held off Selma doing better than its pair of nominations, here and for Best Song. What might be worth mentioning, though, is that the so-called snubbing that took place in Best Director, Actor, and Original Screenplay will likely do wonders for it in the two races it did sneak into.
I have little doubt that if the Academy produced voting totals after the ceremony, we would see a first-ballot four-way race for Best Picture that gives an edge to Birdman and Boyhood but which will have some very strong advocates from different cross-sections of the voters for American Sniper (whose sneaky politics could win over both the elderly leftists and the Greatest Generation jingoists à la Patton) and Selma (a film that likely has more support for being a victimized two-category nominee than it would have had with seven or eight nominations). However, the ranked, quasi-multi-ballot runoff that will take place to weed out the less-loved nominees will almost certainly bring this back to the two films that have taken most of the precursor awards. It’s easy to imagine a number of American Sniper or Selma supporters having Boyhood and Birdman in the second or third slot on their ballots; it’s far harder to imagine the reverse to be true.
The narrative going into the nominations had been one about Richard Linklater finally getting his due from the community, a campaign that included no shortage of interviews reminding people of (a) the sheer number of big names he’s worked with over the years and (b) the high esteem they all seem to hold him in (that there was even theatrical distribution of a slapdash career retrospective documentary should make it clear that narrative had some strong legs). And then awards season transitioned from the critics precursors (and hacky HFPA ceremony) to the industry precursors and the sure bet that many of us had held to started to look like a case of wishful thinking. The Screen Actors Guild (whose membership accounts for the largest voting bloc in the academy), the Directors Guild, and the Producers Guild have all gone with Birdman, an industry ego-stroking technical achievement that, in retrospect, should have always seemed like the best bet for academy predictions.
Comparisons abound between these two films and last year’s 12 Years a Slave–Gravity race. The edge, ultimately went with the emotional heft rather than the tech credentials. In ignoring the guilds here, I’m calling a repeat of last year’s Slave win, even if the box office, mainstream credibility of Birdman is considerably less than that of Gravity. Boyhood has the edge in large part because of its humanism and sentimentality. Sure, two of the last three winners were directly about the artistic process and Hollywood in general, but The Artist and Argo were both decidedly less snide an experience than Birdman. You’d have to go back to 2009 to find the last Best Picture winner that wasn’t uplifting (no pun intended) or righteous. And the biggest positive for Birdman – its technical achievement – can be matched (and, I’d argue, surpassed) by reminders of the logistics of making a coherent film over the course of 12 years.
Best Director
Will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Could win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should win: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: Jonathan Glazer, Under the Skin
For once the fact that Best Picture and Best Director might not match isn’t because of a Best Picture or Best Director frontrunner with strong coattails. Whereas last year it was clear Alfonso Cuaron had Best Director locked up but not as clearly had Best Picture or two years ago when Best Picture was clearly going to be Argo but its chances in the Best Director race were nulled by omission, I could make a strong case to myself that the two top awards could go to any of the four different Boyhood–Birdman permutations. There’s a technical and logistical achievement for both films that makes them (merited or not) production and directorial events. In many ways, my decision to go with Boyhood splitting with Inarritu is likely an unwillingness to believe that either film would come home empty handed in the last two categories. Throw in the Directors Guild win for Birdman and it becomes easier to accept the idea that it’ll be taking the stage for the penultimate award.
Best Actor
Will win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Could win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Should win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Shoulda Been a Contender: Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
One of the bigger surprises of the last few weeks has been the deflating of Michael Keaton’s Oscar run. What had once been one of four foregone conclusions in the acting races is now a spoiler to Eddie Redmayne’s SAG-, Golden Globe-, and BAFTA-winning performance as Stephen Hawking. In retrospect, the degree of physical change Redmayne attempted for his role is pretty much Oscar voter catnip, enough to overcome the narrative of career reinvention that Keaton was riding into his once-assured victory. It’s still possible – how many Oscar voters are stuck in a similar career rut to that Keaton and his character were in – but looking increasingly unlikely that this won’t be a victory for the new blood over the established workhorses (for that, see the other three categories).
Best Actress
Will win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could win: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Should win: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Shoulda Been a Contender: Lisa Loven Kongsli, Force Majeure
At this point, the Academy might as well front load the ceremony with the three remaining acting categories since the suspense is already completely gone. For Julianne Moore, a win for her role as a woman suffering through early onset Alzheimer’s has been pretty much locked up for months.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Could win: Edward Norton, Birdman
Should win: Edward Norton, Birdman
Shoulda Been a Contender: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
A year ago, Oscar voters were more likely to be able to recognize the names of certain cinematography and film editing nominees than J.K. Simmons. Yet the omnipresent pitchman and Coen Brothers’ character actor lucked out with a role that was meaty enough for a lead role’s screen time and story arc while his name value could relegate him to the supporting field (this, in many ways, is the reverse of Steve Carell’s situation in the Best Actor race – if he’d been marketed as a supporting performer, this might actually be a race worth looking at). If there’s anything approaching a spoiler, it would be from Best Picture coattails, which would help Edward Norton or Ethan Hawke. But given how muddled the big races are between Boyhood and Birdman, it’s unlikely that the coattails could be strong enough.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Could win: Emma Stone, Birdman
Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Shoulda Been a Contender: Agata Kulesza, Ida
Like the case with Best Actress, it was a struggle trying to figure out who might have enough support to come in distant second. Let’s go with Emma Stone, if only so we can continue to Birdman vs. Boyhood narrative.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should win: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: James Ward Byrkit, Coherence
Since 2001, only three Best Picture winners (Chicago, Million Dollar Baby, and The Artist) have failed to take home one of the two writing prizes, yet it’s looking like the three-way race in Best Original Screenplay this year may deny both of this year’s possible winners. Assuming that the winner will at least come from the best picture shortlist (2004’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the last non-nominee to win here), that leaves us with Birdman, Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. A little cancelling of each other out from the two Best Picture frontrunners along with only one of the nominees being an in-your-face original (looking past its pantheon of thematic and setting references) and the opportunity to finally award a now-mainstream figure from the 1990s art film scene, causes me to give the edge to BAFTA- and SAG-winner Wes Anderson. And, though it did win the Best Screenplay award at the Golden Globes, I just don’t envision Birdman being the spoiler, if only because I maintain that its script is the worst thing about it. Instead, let’s go with Richard Linklater, the other now-mainstream figure of the 1990s art film scene.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Could win: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Shoulda Been a Contender: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
That decade-long shutout of non-Best Picture nominees in the Original Screenplay race is well surpassed here, wherein the last winner to come from the also rans was 1998’s Gods and Monsters. That fact and the overall reaction to Inherent Vice should make it clear that this is not Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. That’s a shame since it’s the strongest in the field and the second best script, Whiplash, isn’t likely to drum up that much support either (Damien Chazelle’s reaction to the miscategorization of his film in this category – it has one scene that originally existed as a short film – isn’t helping things too much either). So looking at the muddled mess of mediocrity that fills the other slots, we get three paint-by-numbers biopics. I’m almost inclined to go with The Imitation Game, the best of the remainders, since its problems stem largely from a lack of narrative adventurousness rather than the tone-deafness of the other two possibilities. Though The Imitation Game won with the Writers Guild, it’s easy to ignore that win since the rules for those nominations made for a very different competition. Instead, the best precursor might be the BAFTAs, which were high on The Theory of Everything across the board, including choosing it in this category over both Imitation Game and American Sniper. I have a sinking feeling that the Academy has no shortage of advocates for Theory – easily the worst film nominated for Best Picture this year – as well.
Best Cinematography
Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Could win: Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Should win: Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: Hoyte van Hoytema, Interstellar
Last year, Emmanuele Lubezki’s win seemed preordained thanks to a mix of that year’s achievement (Gravity) and his lack of an award for five previous nominations that many considered to have been far more worthy than those that won. This year, Lubezki looks to be headed fully from dearth to glut with back-to-back wins for his work on Birdman regardless of whether Birdman turns out sweeping to victory in the Best Picture of Best Director races.
Best Film Editing
Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Whiplash
Should win: Whiplash
Shoulda Been a Contender: Interstellar
In what is still one of the more curious omissions this year, Birdman failed to get a nomination for its film editing, something that was almost as important to the faked one-shot gambit pulled off in the film as the cinematography. Without Birdman, the category actually is open to a number of possibilities, though I cannot help but wonder how many voters will join me in shrugging over the nomination for The Imitation Game. The Eddie went to Boyhood, whose advocates can argue that it required cutting down and seamlessly shifting through 12 years of footage. Meanwhile its two challengers – Whiplash and American Sniper – likely will cancel each other out as the two most edited nominees.
Best Original Score
Will win: The Theory of Everything
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Interstellar
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Congress
Without a standout score that clearly trumps the rest of the field, we should assume that this is a plum opportunity for the Academy to reward one of its always-a-bridesmaid nominees. This year, that would be Alexandre Desplat. The only problem: he received dual nominations for The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel and, though I’d say Hotel has the edge in a head-to-head competition, it’s likely that there’s a strong enough bloc supporting each that will cancel out both films.
That leaves two great nominees (Interstellar and Mr. Turner) that actually take some risks with their construction and orchestration and one (The Theory of Everything) that has an arty international name behind it but couldn’t be any more unimpressive. Remembering the average age of the Oscar voters helps here since it makes it easier to assume risk won’t be rewarded when there’s a pleasant, emotion-cuing score to settle on (the now puzzling The Social Network win here in 2010 notwithstanding).
Best Song
Will win: “Glory,” Selma
Could win: “Lost Stars,” Begin Again
Should win: “Glory,” Selma
Shoulda Been a Contender: “We Will Not Go,” Virunga
Had Selma gotten the nominations it seemed to be pegged for in other categories – in particular director, screenplay, and actor – this race might have been a nailbiter between the otherwise snubbed “Everything Is Awesome!,” the sentimental favorite “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” and the melodic chameleon “Lost Stars.” I’d even have made the point that the politics of “Glory,” with its namedropping for Ferguson playing to the wrong audience here, would dissuade many of the elderly voters from checking the box for the film even if they felt inclined to vote for the film elsewhere. But the MIA state of Selma elsewhere is going to buy it a lot of sympathy votes here, most likely enough to overcome those more-likely winners.
Best Production Design
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Mr. Turner
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: Birdman
One could make the argument that no major filmmaker has been more intensely involved in crafting intricate, imaginative, and original sets and set pieces than Wes Anderson has with his production designers. And yet the nomination for The Grand Budapest Hotel this year is the first time his collaborators have been afforded a nomination. Throw in the possibility that this is the most ostentatious of Anderson’s sets since he let his camera bisect the Belafonte and a large-support-denoting Best Picture nomination and it’s hard to imagine any of the other nominees passing it.
Best Costume Design
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Mr. Turner
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: Only Lovers Left Alive
The many nominations for The Grand Budapest Hotel this year makes it pretty clear that it has a lot of love scattered throughout the Academy. With that type of support, it’s easy to imagine many of its fans checking off these awards with the expectation that this is the only place where it is likely to dominate. It also helps that it’s, indeed, the best costume design this year.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: Mr. Turner
It always seems like there’s a nominee here with such unimpressive makeup and hairstyling that its nomination puts a pall on the entire three-film category (it’s all the worse when the head-scratcher wins, e.g. last year’s Dallas Buyers Club). This year, that film is unquestionably Foxcatcher, a film that puts its prosthetic achievement in your face for much of the film’s duration, but which has almost nothing else to show for it (Mark Ruffalo looks kind of different from normal, I suppose). For the same reasons I think we’ll see a sweep in costume and production design, I’m imagining The Grand Budapest Hotel edging past Guardians of the Galaxy.
Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Whiplash
Could win: American Sniper
Should win: Whiplash
Shoulda Been a Contender: Under the Skin
Given all the hatred thrown at the sound mix for Interstellar (one of the few times people have seemed to care about this part of the filmmaking process), I’m actually a little surprised that it made the cut (which is a shame since the dissonant, overlapping sound mix actually works in the film’s favor in my opinion). You can also nix Unbroken, which won the most-blatant-Oscar-grab-to-fall-wonderfully-short-of-expectations award this year. A strong case could be made for all the remaining mixes, including the wartime sounds of American Sniper and the (Oscar-ineligible) score and dialogue intermix of Birdman. But, ultimately, the most aural film looks primed to be the winner if only because the film itself defies the viewer to tell the difference between the many musical sounds Whiplash has to offer.
Best Sound Editing
Will win: American Sniper
Could win: Interstellar
Should win: Interstellar
Shoulda Been a Contender: Godzilla
The good news for Interstellar is that no one seems to have a problem with its sound edit; the rub is that many Oscar voters likely have no idea what the difference is between a sound mix and an edit. I’d say American Sniper – raised in part by its love across many other categories – is the most likely to gain from this confusion.
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Interstellar
Shoulda Been a Contender: Birdman
There have been no shortage of complaints thrown at Interstellar since its long-anticipated release, ranging from its casting to its sound design to its screenplay. Yet the one thing most everyone seems to agree on is that it looks pretty amazing. One of the rare big-budget Hollywood productions to heavily utilize model works to create some of its effects, it’s an achievement that should excite both the old school and new school figures in the Academy. If they want to go whole-hog on VFX CGI extravaganzas, I’d think Guardians of the Galaxy will take that easily.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Ida
Could win: Leviathan
Should win: Ida
Shoulda Been a Contender: Force Majeure
The winner of this year’s which-can-be-the-most-depressing-and-embittering-binge-watch, the slate of films in the foreign language race gets credit for at least being overwhelmingly strong this year (gone are the usual crowdpleasers, which gave this category a horrible reputation for a much of the last twenty years). The bitterest of the bunch – Timbuktu and Tangerines – also get to be the toughest sells politically. There’s a strong bitterness to Leviathan as well, though one could argue that its dark humor cuts it. But the humanism at work in Ida seems almost certain to be the one to climb out of the mire. Throw in its tone, setting, and even aspect ratio, and its easy to see its appeal with the elderly voters who make up the majority of those who actually watch these one-nomination films (and those that do want more bang for their buck are more likely to watch the double-nominee Ida anyway.
Best Animated Feature
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could win: Big Hero 6
Should win: The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Lego Movie
No doubt this would be a different race had the critical and financial hit The Lego Movie passed muster with the animation branch. But it fell short against one of the two small-budget international productions in the mix, both of which certainly will have some intense support but likely in a pretty small subsection of the Academy. In the end – like all years – this is a race between the big Hollywood productions, which means you can also drop any expectation that Laika’s The Boxtrolls might pull off a surprise win. Though I have a hunch that a little anti-sequel sentiment and a pretty deep love for Disney (9 of the last 12 winners have been Disney releases) could cause Big Hero 6 to eke out a win, it’s hard not to believe the aggressiveness of the campaign for How to Train Your Dragon 2 and its more traditional storytelling will prove more imposing.
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Virunga
Could win: Citizenfour
Should win: Citizenfour
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Overnighters
If the Academy voters skewed a little younger (like many of the critics groups that have awarded Citizenfour) or a little more international (like BAFTA, which awarded Citizenfour), I’d feel pretty sure that we’d see this year’s most politically divisive documentary subject get his documentarians an Oscar. But this is an elderly bunch with some elderly – albeit liberal – politics. The concept of the whistleblower might sound good on paper to them but, like the politics of Ferguson in “Glory” or, for that matter, in Selma as a whole, the reality of the times isn’t one that makes them too comfortable. With that in mind, I just don’t see Citizenfour being able to overcome the elderly who are the most likely to put in the time to even watch the five nominated films. This means that the favorite is more likely one of the two less-divisive works, the artist discovery bauble Finding Vivian Maier and the wildlife-in-danger Virunga. Given recent wins for 20 Feet from Stardom and Searching for Sugar Man, I think a good case can be made for Maier. But the emotional gut punch that is Virunga likely will be a more palatable option for both the elders and the smattering of younger voters who aren’t smitten with Snowden.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Will win: Joanna
Could win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Live-Action Short
Will win: The Phone Call
Could win: Boogaloo and Graham
Animated Short
Will win: Feast
Could win: Me and My Moulton
